The Spanish real estate market enters the last four months of 2025 with a dynamic marked by a shortage of supply, the revaluation of new homes, and growing tension in the rental market. According to the latest data from CBRE, the sector will close the year with more than 742,000 sales—3.7% more than in 2024—and real estate investment that could exceed €16 billion, more than a third of which is expected in the fourth quarter.
Prices at Record Highs
Unrestricted housing prices registered a 12.2% year-over-year increase in the first quarter, the highest since 2007. The average price growth forecast for all of 2025 ranges between 9% and 9.6%, according to estimates by CaixaBank Research, Singular Bank, and consulting firms such as CBRE.
New housing, especially, continues to rise. In the second half of the year, the average price per square meter will reach €3,291, placing the average cost of a 100 m² apartment above €329,000. Even so, demand continues unabated, driven by the attractiveness of the Spanish market for international buyers and the lack of quality alternatives.
Insufficient Supply and Pressure on Rentals
The imbalance between supply and demand remains one of the main challenges facing the sector. The structural housing deficit stands at between 450,000 and 600,000 units, according to industry estimates. Although new construction permits have increased by 17% so far this year, production is still insufficient to meet demand.
This scenario has a direct impact on the rental market, where prices have risen by nearly 11% in the last year. The burden on households is intensifying: more than 40% of tenants spend an excessive portion of their monthly income on rent, which has reopened the debate on regulatory measures and the urgent need for effective public policies.
Investment and Buyer Profile
Cumulative real estate investment through mid-year already exceeds €7.3 billion, 22% more than in the same period in 2024. The residential ("living") segment continues to lead capital raising, followed by the hotel and retail sectors. Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, the Balearic Islands, and Valencia account for the bulk of transactions.
The buyer profile remains mixed: Spanish professionals between 35 and 55 years old, institutional investors, and a growing presence of international buyers, attracted by macroeconomic stability and the safe haven represented by real estate in Spain.
Outlook for the end of the year
Analysts anticipate a dynamic fourth quarter. Traditionally, this period accounts for between 30% and 40% of total annual real estate investment. Forecasts point to a solid close to the year, albeit with latent risks: the evolution of interest rates, the global socioeconomic situation, and the debate over rental regulations could impact market confidence.
In this context, the focus will continue to be on the need to expedite the implementation of development land, accelerate the issuance of new construction permits, and find a balance between investor profitability and access to housing for the population.
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