It is estimated that housing sales will grow by 6.5% next year, in which prices will rise 3.5% and closed the year at 2004. According to estimates, this fact will mean a rise in floors from 2.5%.
It is healthy growth, there is no indication that it may be brewing a new housing bubble. Buyers expectations are in line with the evolution of the fundamentals of the economy. The improvement in the housing market, though, is not being homogeneous. In Madrid, the Mediterranean axis and the islands is virtually normalized, but in the central and northern recovery still accumulates some delay.
2016 being a good year for the sector by improving disposable income of families brought about by rising employment, consumer confidence at record highs, and purchases by foreigners (grew 20.8 % in the first quarter to assume 18% of the total). The 'Brexit' in the UK, whose citizens are leading the foreign acquisitions (20% of total), is one of the factors behind the slowdown in projected sales for next year: "It is a possible risk, although we think that the United Kingdom will continue building an important role. "
One of the factors decelerating is the departure of the European Union and can subtract between 0.3 and 0.4 points to the Spanish economy next year, although its impact may be greater in Valencia and Murcia (0.5 to 0.6 points). Other factors that will reduce sales in 2017 are that oil will be more expensive than expected, monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) will moderate its impact, uncertainties about the Spanish economic policy subtracted 0.7 percentage points of GDP between this year and next and the United States will reduce its growth.
Spain still grow faster than the European average and create 800,000 jobs in 2017. This coupled with the policy of cheap credit fueled by the ECB will make the real estate market reregister a good evolution. In fact, affordability ratios families to housing (measured by disposable income in relation to prices and the cost of financing) is at historic highs in all regions.
The soil also contributes to the improvement of the sector: the sold in the first half area grew 19.2%, with price appreciation of 5.9%.
In addition, the completion of housing continues to decline in coming quarters and will play ground.